Reading on mobile? Watch the trailer for The Counselor
This year's …
Carlito's Way, perhaps, in that it features a mainstream-but-arty actor (Michael Fassbender) playing a lawyer drawn deeper and deeper into the drugs trade, just as Sean Penn was when playing Al Pacino's attorney.
What's it all about?
A $20m drugs deal, in which the titular lawyer finds himself embroiled. Needless to say, the deal does not proceed smoothly with a safe and prompt delivery of the consignment to a satisfied customer. The drugs are stolen, a courier is beheaded, and Cameron Diaz – for the benefit of those who think there may be a happy ending – explains: "The slaughter to come – it's probably beyond our imagining." And who is being blamed for the whole mess? You guessed it.
How did it happen?
The Counselor was a spec script written by the novelist Cormac McCarthy, which he sold in January 2012 to the producers who shephered his novel The Road to the screen in 2009. Ridley Scott was on board as director within the month, and Hollywood's A-list duked it out for roles, with large numbers of them securing something: Brad Pitt, Penélope Cruz, Cameron Diaz and Javier Bardem are all on board, with a supporting cast including John Leguizamo, Rosie Pérez and Goran Višnjić. Shooting began in London last summer, with a break for Scott to deal with the death of his brother, Tony.
Nominations it wants
With the talent involved? All of the major categories, probably. A script by McCarthy – unless it proves to be an unspeakable mess – will surely be a shoo-in for a best original screenplay nom, which would then open the door for best picture and a fourth best-director nomination for Scott. How the actors divvy up the supporting and lead nominations is likely to be the main point of doubt.
What it might win
Scott and Pitt (who has three acting nominations) are both seen as overdue for a statue, so they're likely to be serious contenders for the director and supporting actor prizes. Paddy Power currently has it at 20/1 for best picture and the same odds for best actress. But there's form here: one of the big hits of the 2008 Oscars was No Country for Old Men – another tale of immorality from McCarthy – which picked up the picture, director, supporting actor and adapted screenplay gongs.
Reasons to fall for it
That cast list. That screenwriter. A trailer that makes it look like the perfect combination of hard-bitten and glamorous. And Ridley Scott might not be the greatest director ever, but he's proved time and time again he knows how to move a starry ensemble cast from A to B with minimum fuss and maximum impact.
Reasons it might fail
That cast. That screenwriter. There's a risk it might end up being more of a competition for profile than an actual film. And when McCarthy goes wrong on film, he goes badly wrong. Just ask Cruz about how All the Pretty Horses panned out.
When can we see it?
25 October in the US, 15 November in the UK. No festival premiere in the works at the moment.
In five words
Kiss kiss sniff bang bang
More from Oscars Predictions 2014
• 12 Years a Slave
• Fruitvale Station
• The Monuments Men
• Dallas Buyers Club
• Labor Day
• American Hustle
• August: Osage County
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