With less than a week to go until the Man Booker Prize shortlist 2013 is unveiled, the bookies' favourite is Harvest by Jim Crace.
At 11/4 from William Hill, or 5/2 at Ladbrokes, Crace is tipped to scoop the prize, echoing Philip Hensher's prediction in the Spectator that he "can hardly see where else the prize can go than to the long-overdue Crace".
Indeed, the bookies' top five favourites mostly reflect Hensher's predictions – he urges a shortlist comprising Crace, with TransAtlantic by Colum McCann, The Testament of Mary by Colm Tóibín, Almost English by Charlotte Mendelson , The Kills by Richard House and Eleanor Catton's The Luminaries.
Catton's historical novel about the 19th-century New Zealand gold rush is second-favourite with the bookies, at 4/1 with Ladbrokes and 5/1 with William Hill. In both bookmakers' top fives – suggesting that they are also favourites to make the shortlist – are The Spinning Heart by Donal Ryan (6/1 Ladbrokes and 7/1 William Hill), and Tóibín's The Testament of Mary (8/1 Ladbrokes and 7/1 William Hill).
The key to correctly predicting the winner is all in the reviews, said Graham Sharpe, William Hill media projects director, as well as in "second-guessing the judging panel. Basically all betting markets operate on the same principles: make sure no one knows more than you do."
With this in mind, certain of those books attracting longer odds look to be worth a flutter. At 12/1, Richard House's The Kills may appear to be an outsider but the judges – although denying any desire to throw out sacred cows – are clearly in experimental mood and have emphasised the diversity of their choices.
At 10/1, Charlotte Mendelson's Almost English might also seem an outsider, but is "a little masterpiece of characterisation and milieu", according to the Guardian review.
Ladbrokes
Harvest by Jim Crace 5/2
The Luminaries by Eleanor Catton 4/1
The Spinning Heart by Donal Ryan 6/1
Unexploded by Alison MacLeod 7/1
The Testament of Mary by Colm Tóibín 8/1
The Kills by Richard House 8/1
TransAtlantic by Colum McCann 8/1
A Tale for the Time Being by Ruth Ozeki 8/1
Almost English by Charlotte Mendelson 10/1
Five Star Billionaire by Tash Aw 10/1
We Need New Names by NoViolet Bulawayo 10/1
The Lowland by Jhumpa Lahiri 10/1
The Marrying of Chani Kaufman by Eve Harris 12/1
William Hill
Harvest by Jim Crace 11/4
The Luminaries by Eleanor Catton 5/1
The Testament of Mary by Colm Tóibín 7/1
The Spinning Heart by Donal Ryan 7/1
TransAtlantic by Colum McCann 8/1
The Lowland by Jhumpa Lahiri 8/1
Unexploded by Alison MacLeod 10/1
Almost English by Charlotte Mendelson 10/1
We Need New Names by NoViolet Bulawayo 10/1
Five Star Billionaire by Tash Aw 10/1
The Kills by Richard House 12/1
The Marrying of Chani Kaufman by Eve Harris 14/1
A Tale for the Time Being by Ruth Ozeki 14/1
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